Ep 179: Why Tracking Retention and Churn Isn’t Enough - Leading vs. Lagging Metrics
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Why Tracking Retention and Churn Isn’t Enough – Leading vs. Lagging Metrics
Most membership owners track churn and retention rates, but by the time those numbers start changing, it’s already too late to prevent cancellations.
Retention and churn are lagging metrics. They tell you what has already happened, but they don’t tell you why it happened or how to stop it from happening again.
If you wait until churn increases to take action, you’re always playing defense. Instead, membership owners should track leading metrics, which act as early warning signs of potential churn and help you keep members engaged before they decide to leave.
The Difference Between Leading and Lagging Metrics
A lagging metric is something you track after the fact. It provides useful data, but it doesn’t give you an opportunity to fix the problem before it happens.
Common lagging retention metrics include:
Retention rate – The percentage of members who stay over a given period.
Churn rate – The percentage of members who cancel each month or year.
Lifetime value (LTV) – The total revenue a member generates before they leave.
While these numbers are important, they don’t tell you what caused a member to cancel or how to prevent future churn.
A leading metric, on the other hand, predicts future retention or churn. Leading metrics allow you to identify at-risk members before they cancel so you can take action.
Examples of leading retention metrics include:
Members who don’t engage in the first 30 days are more likely to cancel.
Members who stop logging in for 45+ days are at risk of churn.
Members who attend live calls or consume content regularly are more likely to stay long-term.
Tracking these leading indicators allows you to take proactive steps to prevent churn before it happens.
The Key Leading Metrics That Predict Retention and Churn
Memberships should track three key categories of leading retention metrics to get an accurate picture of long-term retention potential.
1. Activation Metrics – Are Members Getting Started?
One of the strongest indicators of retention is how quickly and effectively a member gets started in your membership.
Key activation metrics to track:
Time since last login – If a new member hasn’t logged in within the first 7-10 days, they’re at risk of dropping off.
Onboarding completion – Members who don’t complete onboarding are less likely to stick around.
First milestone achieved – If your membership helps members achieve specific results, track how quickly they reach their first success milestone.
Scenario:
A membership site discovered that members who didn’t log in within the first 10 days were three times more likely to cancel within three months. By adding a personalized email sequence for inactive new members, they significantly improved retention.
2. Engagement and Consumption Metrics – Are Members Active?
Engagement is one of the biggest predictors of retention. If members aren’t using your membership, they’re not going to keep paying for it.
Key engagement metrics to track:
Login frequency – Are members logging in regularly?
Content consumption – Are they watching videos, reading lessons, or using the materials?
Live call attendance – Are they showing up for coaching calls or live events?
Community participation – Are they posting, commenting, or engaging with other members?
Scenario:
A coaching membership found that members who attended at least one live call per month had a 95% retention rate. Members who never attended a call were 50% more likely to cancel.
3. Progress and Success Metrics – Are Members Seeing Results?
If members aren’t making progress, they’re more likely to leave.
Key progress and success metrics to track:
Module or lesson completions – Are members moving through the content?
Milestone tracking – Are they hitting key progress points in your program?
Self-reported wins – Are they sharing testimonials, wins, or transformations?
Scenario:
A business membership realized that members who completed at least three lessons in their first month had the highest renewal rates. They added a "first 30 days roadmap" to guide new members, which improved retention.
The Most Overlooked Retention Metric: Failed Payments
One of the biggest reasons memberships lose members is failed payments.
If a payment fails and there’s no recovery process in place, you’re losing members who never actually wanted to cancel.
Important failed payment metrics to track:
Number of failed payments per month
Recovery rate (how many failed payments get successfully charged later?)
Number of members lost due to failed payments
If you don’t have a system in place to recover failed payments, you could be missing out on significant recurring revenue.
Why Tracking Leading Metrics Matters
When you track leading retention metrics, you can:
Spot at-risk members before they cancel
Improve member engagement and progress
Make data-driven retention decisions instead of guessing
If you only look at churn after it happens, you’re always playing defense. Leading metrics help you be proactive instead of reactive.
How to Improve Retention in Your Membership
If you want to improve retention, you need a clear strategy for tracking the right data and taking action before churn happens.
Get my free Membership Retention Roadmap at retainguide.com to start optimizing your membership today.
Retention isn’t just about looking at churn. It’s about understanding the early warning signs that tell you when a member is at risk.
When you track the right numbers, you can stop guessing, start optimizing, and keep more members long-term.
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